ormer President Trump’s historic felony conviction makes half of Republicans even more likely to vote for him, according to a poll in the verdict’s immediate aftermath.Donald Trump leads President Biden by 2 points (47%-45%) in latest New York Times/Siena polling – defying predictions that his felony conviction would sink his 2024 comeback bid. As the Republican convention approaches, these numbers signal a knife-edge US election with profound implications for India: from H-1B visa policies to potential trade wars impacting $128B in bilateral goods trade.
Post-Conviction Polling Surprise
Key findings (June 20-25, NYT/Siena):
- Trump leads 47%-45% nationally among likely voters
- Independents split 43%-42% for Trump
- 91% of Republicans back Trump vs. 85% Democrats for Biden
- Shift: Trump trailed by 1 point pre-conviction in May
Demographic Fault Lines
Trump’s resilient support stems from:
| Group | Trump Lead | Key Issue |
|---|---|---|
| Men | +12 points | Inflation |
| Under 45 voters | +5 points | Housing costs |
| Non-college | +25 points | Economic nostalgia |
| Women | Biden +6 | Abortion rights |
Biden’s Uphill Battle
The President struggles with:
- 79% believe US headed “wrong direction” (Quinnipiac)
- 68% disapprove of inflation handling
- 42% approval rating – lowest since 2022 (Gallup)
India-Specific Stakes
Policy risks if Trump wins:
- H-1B Visas: 2020 suspension threat returns
- Trade Tariffs: “America First” could target Indian IT/pharma
- Ukraine Stance: Isolationism may weaken Russia containment
Pollster Methodology Notes
- Sample Size: 1,226 registered voters (±3.5% margin)
- Adjustments: Weighted by age, gender, education
- Outlier?: Reuters/Ipsos shows Biden +1 post-debate
“Shy Trump Voter” Debate
Analysts warn:
- 17% less likely to admit Trump support to pollsters (YouGov)
- Landline polls undercount youth voters
- Conviction impact may surface later
What’s Next?
- July 15-18 GOP Convention: Trump VP pick could sway polls
- September Debates: Make-or-break for Biden
- October Surprise: Unpredictable events (e.g., health, economy)
Summary: Trump’s persistent polling lead reveals deep voter discontent with Biden’s economy, outweighing legal woes for many. With the race statistically tied, India must prepare for both scenarios – from trade disruptions under Trump to continuity challenges with an aging Biden. The next 120 days will redefine Indo-US relations.
Trump leads Biden 47-45 in new polls despite conviction! Analysis of US election impact on India’s trade, visas & global stability.
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